Zuma Should Learn From Lula

By Richard Lapper 

Published: May 24 2009

 

“[He] is going to win the election . . . so the crisis is going to get much bigger and soon.”

 

It might have been written about Jacob Zuma, the new leader of South Africasince his victory in last month’s election . But the columnist quoted above was actually casting judgment on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during the tumultuous months before the Brazilian president’s first election success in October 2002.

 

Mr Lula da Silva, of course, has turned the prediction on its head, leading Brazil not only out of crisis but into a period of relative prosperity. And just as the opinion formers were wrong about Brazil’s president, could they now also be underestimating South Africa’s leader?

 

It is an intriguing idea, partly because the two men have so much in common. Both are political outsiders from poor backgrounds. In the 1950s Mr Lula da Silva sold peanuts and oranges on the streets of Sao Bernardo, a working class suburb of São Paulo. During the same period Mr Zuma was herding cattle at a village in rural Zululand.

 

Both men have dedicated their lives to the cause of revolution. Mr Lula da Silva as a trade union leader and a founder of the leftwing Workers Party; Mr Zuma as an activist underground, in prison and in exile for the African National Congress. Both are affable men, good at listening and negotiating. Mr Lula da Silva won concessions for his members. Mr Zuma helped to parlay an end to the violence between the ruling ANC and the Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party that rocked KwaZulu Natal in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

 

True, their political challenges have differed. In 2002 Brazil was on the edge of a financial crisis, partly because of fears that it would default on its debt and slide towards the populist left.

 

The risk in South Africa has been more about governance. Certainly there are worries about Mr Zuma’s populist leanings and ties with the left. But his critics have been more concerned by allegations of corruption. Mr Zuma has courted disdain too for his views on sexuality – he is a polygamist – which critics fear will make it harder to control the Aids epidemic.

 

Yet recently those fears about ungovernability have eased. A cloud still hangs over Mr Zuma but evidence that some of those involved in charging him with corruption were politically motivated prompted the state prosecutor to drop the charges in April. And in the first flush of election victory, Mr Zuma has struck all the right notes, emphasising a new “inclusiveness” towards minority white, coloured and Indian communities, who felt sidelined under Thabo Mbeki, his predecessor,.

 

The new president has talked about the need to do more with existing resources, urging ministers and civil servants to work harder. Private investors have welcomed the appointment of Trevor Manuel, the much respected finance minister, to head a new national planning commission – potentially a powerful new cabinet position.

 

Trade unions have failed with an attempt to disrupt a big foreign investment in the telecommunications sector, with government lawyers standing firmly behind the deal.

In Brazil, Mr Lula da Silva’s achievement has been to maintain economic stability, place the plight of the poor at the top of the political agenda, and press ahead with reform, steadily expanding social welfare programmes. There now seems at least a possibility that Mr Zuma could start on the same centrist path. It won’t be easy. South Africa’s economy – as figures for the first quarter of 2009 are likely to reveal on Tuesday – is in recession.

 

In Brazil Mr Lula da Silva was able to use his “man of the people” image to contain expectations of overnight change, and persuade supporters to stick with him for the long haul. It is a trick that Mr Zuma could repeat.

 

Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c5c65464-4883-11de-8870-00144feabdc0.html

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